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Md Nadim Ahmed's avatar

For now Africa should focus more on developing agriculture instead of manufacturing. Most of them have same cereal yields per hectares since decolonisation.

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Yaw's avatar

Great article and I love the math and graphs. I think much of this can be explained by currency overvaluation in Africa.

A lot of African countries purposely overvalue their currencies to make food and fuel imports cheap. They artificially strengthen African currencies( and thus prices) until they run out of foreign currency, request an IMF loan, and then their currency devalues. Nigeria's currency was overvalued for the longest time (like 460 naira to 1 dollar in 2023) And now it's like 1500 now that the new president is letting the currency float.

In addition , many African countries have anchored currencies. Cabo Verde and sao tome are anchored to the euro (initially Portuguese escurdo, but then Portugal joined the EU) and all Black French Africa countries - (Mauritania & Guinea)+ Equatorial Guinea & Guinea Bissau are in the cfa franc and they are anchored to the euro also.

Those currencies haven't had a devaluation since 1994 and those countries mainly run current account deficits. All those anchored currency countries all have overvalued currencies.

I think that explains most of it tbh. African countries will continue to purposely overvalue their currencies until food imports don't matter when they can grow their own food. This is why agricultural productivity has always been a prereq before manufacturing.

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